Gas on the way for $ 4 a gallon – when could it happen in NJ?

In recent months, gasoline prices in New Jersey have climbed 10 cents per gallon above the national average, prompting an analyst who predicts the United States could pay $ 4 a gallon by here on Memorial Day to speed up his forecast for the Garden State. .

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, said New Jersey was at “high risk” for reaching that holiday benchmark a bit early.

There’s a lot more to consider than supply and demand, De Haan said, starting with refineries returning to more expensive summer formula gas in the spring.

“On average over the past decade, gasoline prices have risen 25 to 75 cents per gallon between the start of the year and Memorial Day weekend,” he said.

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Average gas prices by New Jersey county, according to AAA.

When the COVID-19 pandemic began nearly two years ago, Americans stayed at home in droves, sending demand first, then oil prices, and then oil production, plummeting.

De Haan said that since then uncertainty has clouded the picture of the future development of gas prices.

“The whole pandemic has really changed the factors that go into what you pay at the pump,” De Haan said. “There has been a huge imbalance created by COVID-19 between supply and demand, and that is largely why we are paying a higher price. “

But, he said, there is a silver lining. As prices increase, production will also increase, which will eventually push prices down.

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There could be a time lag in this relationship, which apparently makes it slow to develop, but De Haan believes that by the end of 2022 gas prices in New Jersey could return to where they are now.

Why do gas prices in NJ vary so much from station to station?

“I think we’ll see relief eventually,” he said. “Oil is a boom and bust cycle; when prices are low, oil companies have less incentive to produce oil and various products.”

Until that relief comes, however, De Haan suggests taking the tour if you can.

Patrick Lavery is the anchor for the New Jersey 101.5 afternoon news. Follow it on Twitter @ plavery1015 or send an email to [email protected]

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